# Kang Sun-woo in jail by March 31? 

<table class="pythia-summary">
<tr><th>Predicted at</th><td>2026-02-16 07:18 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><th>Prediction</th><td><strong>77.3%</strong></td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (at prediction)</th><td>68.0%</td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (live)</th><td><span class="pythia-live-price" data-token-id="105074263905811933598529708723485287042547663782204323065657187728629758359839">—</span></td></tr>
</table>

## Analysis

The spread (52-82%) comes from different weighting of Assembly vote passage probability and court warrant issuance likelihood. Evidence is specific and verifiable but the conclusion is already well-priced by the market.

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