# Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?

<table class="pythia-summary">
<tr><th>Predicted at</th><td>2026-02-16 06:13 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><th>Prediction</th><td><strong>15.2%</strong></td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (at prediction)</th><td>38.0%</td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (live)</th><td><span class="pythia-live-price" data-token-id="31710526515637853019014921424621846051756133805905305512202715271350686434930">—</span></td></tr>
</table>

## Analysis

The expansion of the Abraham Accords has historically been characterized by a significant period of inactivity, with a five-year gap following the initial wave of accessions in late 2020. While Kazakhstan has expressed a public intention to join the framework as of November 2025, the formal signing required by this market has not yet occurred. Current reports consistently describe the ceremony as an upcoming event rather than a completed action. Given the lack of confirmed progress toward a final agreement, the likelihood of a formal signing occurring before the March 31 deadline remains constrained by the absence of concrete diplomatic milestones. Consequently, the forecast reflects the historical difficulty of securing new signatories and the current status of pending negotiations.

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