Will any xAI Grok model score at least 30% on the FrontierMath Exam?
| Predicted at | 2026-02-16 07:09 UTC |
|---|---|
| Prediction | 83.7% |
| Market (at prediction) | 74.5% |
| Market (live) | — |
Analysis
Agent 3 (8%) misread the resolution date as Feb 28 instead of June 30, creating a misleading outlier. Excluding it, agents cluster 58-82% with mean ~68%. The market at 74.5% is supported by sibling market structure (40% threshold at 72% implies 30% should be higher) and the recent price jump suggesting new information. Grok 4 Heavy already at ~26% means only modest improvement needed. However, the key risk is the leaderboard requirement - even if a Grok model can score 30%, Epoch AI must evaluate and publish it. My estimate of 72% is close to market price (edge ~2.5%), far below the 5% threshold for a trade. Agent confidence is generally low (0.35-0.65), reflecting genuine uncertainty about xAI's release timeline and Epoch's evaluation schedule.
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This page is for informational and research purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial advice. Do not make investment decisions based on these predictions.