# Will Canada’s February 2026 unemployment rate be 6.5%?

<table class="pythia-summary">
<tr><th>Predicted at</th><td>2026-02-16 05:51 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><th>Prediction</th><td><strong>13.0%</strong></td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (at prediction)</th><td>36.0%</td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (live)</th><td><span class="pythia-live-price" data-token-id="84536662758453885786486032719814905093013186223062575244907510593420806585664">—</span></td></tr>
</table>

## Analysis

The precision requirement (landing in 6.45-6.54% band) combined with recent 0.3pp monthly volatility makes exact repetition unlikely. Trading Economics professional forecast of 6.7% suggests upward bias.

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