# Will February 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?

<table class="pythia-summary">
<tr><th>Predicted at</th><td>2026-02-16 04:13 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><th>Prediction</th><td><strong>98.6%</strong></td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (at prediction)</th><td>81.5%</td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (live)</th><td><span class="pythia-live-price" data-token-id="39767061667393855896374698361881230879589636523861921480943483960171585422732">—</span></td></tr>
</table>

## Analysis

Historical temperature data from NASA GISS establishes a clear ranking for the hottest February anomalies on record. The top three warmest February months are currently 2024, 2016, and 2025, which set a high baseline for comparison. According to the NASA GISS GLB.Ts+dSST dataset, the recorded anomaly for February 2026 is 1.08°C. This value places February 2026 as the 6th hottest February in the historical record. Because this ranking falls outside the top three, it satisfies the criteria for being the 4th or lower hottest on record.

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