# Will John Carter be the Republican nominee for TX-31?

<table class="pythia-summary">
<tr><th>Predicted at</th><td>2026-02-16 05:34 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><th>Prediction</th><td><strong>96.4%</strong></td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (at prediction)</th><td>84.5%</td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (live)</th><td><span class="pythia-live-price" data-token-id="34014828748207954199896815902039373152469125905390661463535101160564815273469">—</span></td></tr>
</table>

## Analysis

The core case is strong: 12-term incumbent, Trump endorsement, fragmented weak opposition (Gomez banned/registration suspended), and >95% historical base rate for incumbents. The main risk is the declining vote share trend (82→71→65%) potentially pushing him below 50% with 9 challengers, triggering a Texas runoff. However, even in a runoff he'd be strongly favored with Trump's endorsement. The market at 84.5% is reasonably efficient here.

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