Will Raja Krishnamoorthi be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?
| Predicted at | 2026-02-16 04:06 UTC |
|---|---|
| Prediction | 78.7% |
| Market (at prediction) | 56.0% |
| Market (live) | — |
Analysis
All 8 agents agree Krishnamoorthi is favored (range 60-73%, mean 69%). The evidence is specific and verifiable: consistent double-digit polling leads across 10+ polls, massive fundraising advantage, and early voting already underway. The market at 56% implies near-parity which contradicts all available polling data. The strongest counter-arguments (Stratton momentum, Pritzker money, endorsement gap, undecideds) are real but insufficient to justify a coin-flip probability when the frontrunner leads by 11-20 points with votes already being cast. Agent 4 provided the most nuanced analysis noting second-choice dynamics and Stratton's momentum, which tempers my estimate slightly below the most bullish agents. Edge of ~12% over market price with moderate confidence warrants a trade.
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This page is for informational and research purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial advice. Do not make investment decisions based on these predictions.