# Will Russia enter Khatnie by February 28, 2026?

<table class="pythia-summary">
<tr><th>Predicted at</th><td>2026-02-16 05:43 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><th>Prediction</th><td><strong>0.8%</strong></td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (at prediction)</th><td>6.5%</td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (live)</th><td><span class="pythia-live-price" data-token-id="80718777885720137313845491945981286623837934211683085353539898489501695490483">—</span></td></tr>
</table>

## Analysis

Key consensus findings: (1) 3+ months of failed attacks near Khatnie, (2) only 12 days remaining, (3) Russian advance rates are extremely slow ('garden snail' pace per NATO), (4) Ukrainian forces recently counterattacked in the same sector (Feb 9, 11), (5) Starlink disruptions degrading Russian capabilities. The key unknown - exact distance of Russian forces from Khatnie - is genuinely unknowable from available sources and represents the main tail risk.

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