Will Trump say "Antifa" in February?
| Predicted at | 2026-02-16 06:29 UTC |
|---|---|
| Prediction | 36.4% |
| Market (at prediction) | 42.5% |
| Market (live) | — |
Analysis
Agents 1 and 2 had research failures and should be discounted. The remaining 6 agents range from 35-55%, splitting on how much weight to give the SOTU. The strongest evidence comes from Agent 4 and Agent 8 who verified multiple transcripts showing no February mentions. The SOTU is a real but uncertain catalyst - Trump's speeches there are scripted and cover many topics. The Prairieland trial starting Feb 17 could trigger reporter questions. However, 16 days of silence across multiple public appearances is meaningful negative evidence. My estimate of 42% aligns with market price, giving no actionable edge. The ensemble mean of 46% is inflated by two failed agents defaulting to 50%.
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