# Will Trump say “Low IQ” by February 28?

<table class="pythia-summary">
<tr><th>Predicted at</th><td>2026-02-16 06:04 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><th>Prediction</th><td><strong>81.3%</strong></td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (at prediction)</th><td>60.0%</td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (live)</th><td><span class="pythia-live-price" data-token-id="41985357316338842884710981516262632862662018533962494036924160963889862271368">—</span></td></tr>
</table>

## Analysis

Donald Trump has established a consistent rhetorical pattern of using the phrase 'Low IQ' to describe political opponents and critics. Historical data indicates he has utilized this specific terminology approximately 85 times over the past 18 months, establishing a frequent base rate of roughly once per week. While public reports confirm he used the phrase in early February 2026, the market criteria require a verified mention within the specific window of February 12 through February 28. Given the high frequency of his public appearances and his documented tendency to repeat this specific insult, the likelihood of an additional mention occurring before the end of the month remains elevated. This assessment relies on the observed consistency of his public vocabulary and recent reporting on his speaking habits.

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