# Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

<table class="pythia-summary">
<tr><th>Predicted at</th><td>2026-02-24 01:16 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><th>Prediction</th><td><strong>6.7%</strong></td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (at prediction)</th><td>21.5%</td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (live)</th><td><span class="pythia-live-price" data-token-id="74768395815166461619548348007728690058055087254143355558596876906836785272025">—</span></td></tr>
</table>

## Analysis

The evidence is specific and verifiable: Emerson poll shows him at 16% vs McMorrow 22%, he has the weakest general election numbers, progressive vote is split with McMorrow, and he lost his only prior statewide primary by 22 points. Sanders endorsement and 38% undecided provide upside but haven't materialized in polling. This falls squarely in the toxic YES=0.20 bucket where historical profitability is poor.

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