# Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?

<table class="pythia-summary">
<tr><th>Predicted at</th><td>2026-02-24 00:00 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><th>Prediction</th><td><strong>1.8%</strong></td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (at prediction)</th><td>17.5%</td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (live)</th><td><span class="pythia-live-price" data-token-id="105405591204235294154065072255996765856158420276178976994231896499913933077683">—</span></td></tr>
</table>

## Analysis

Brad Raffensperger currently faces significant hurdles in the 2026 Georgia Republican gubernatorial primary, as polling data consistently places him in third or fourth position. He trails frontrunners Rick Jackson and Burt Jones by double-digit margins, with his support levels stagnating between 8% and 10%. While historical data suggests that Secretaries of State running for governor can occasionally be competitive, Raffensperger's current standing remains well below the levels typically required to secure a primary victory. The presence of well-funded opponents further complicates his path to consolidating the necessary support among Republican voters. These polling trends indicate a substantial gap between his current performance and the requirements for a successful primary campaign.

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