Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?
| Predicted at | 2026-02-24 14:11 UTC |
|---|---|
| Prediction | 46.5% |
| Market (at prediction) | 58.0% |
| Market (live) | — |
Analysis
Six of eight agents estimate 42-53%, with only Agent 2 at 68% pulling the mean up. The core question is the DPK primary, where polling is genuinely mixed but Kim leads in more polls. Decomposing: ~50% primary win × ~87% general election win ≈ 43-48%. The market at 58% appears to over-weight Choo's momentum from a single February poll while ignoring Kim's consistent leads elsewhere. The 10-point edge (58% market vs ~48% estimate) exceeds the 5% threshold, though confidence is moderate given primary uncertainty and the possibility of unobserved party dynamics favoring Choo. The gender barrier (0/87) provides additional structural headwind not fully reflected in polling.
Timestamped via OpenTimestamps · Block 957898
SHA-256: f0f2618d60306175ff185fb89af2b58c91a78c5e64f803e6c2d6936b44eade53
Download content.md · Download .ots proof
Verification needs both files. Download them, confirm the text’s hash with
sha256sum content.md, then check the proof against
it — drag both into opentimestamps.org
or run ots verify content.md.ots locally. The
.ots proof anchors that SHA-256 into a Bitcoin block,
showing this analysis existed before the outcome was known.
This page is for informational and research purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial advice. Do not make investment decisions based on these predictions.