# Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

<table class="pythia-summary">
<tr><th>Predicted at</th><td>2026-02-24 00:21 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><th>Prediction</th><td><strong>81.3%</strong></td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (at prediction)</th><td>65.0%</td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (live)</th><td><span class="pythia-live-price" data-token-id="110122181888273195383360287898587768603292915416312453076255709982749135343576">—</span></td></tr>
</table>

## Analysis

Historical data from Brazilian presidential elections since 1994 indicates that candidates consistently polling in second place six to eight months before the vote qualify for the runoff in approximately 85% to 90% of cases. Flavio Bolsonaro currently maintains a stable position in second place with 28-35% support, supported by polling data from organizations such as Quaest, AtlasIntel, and Paraná Pesquisas. Furthermore, the significant polling gap of over 20 points between the second and third-place candidates creates a structural barrier that historically makes it difficult for trailing contenders to overtake the frontrunner. These trends, combined with consistent polling performance, provide the primary analytical basis for this assessment.

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