# Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

<table class="pythia-summary">
<tr><th>Predicted at</th><td>2026-02-24 00:50 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><th>Prediction</th><td><strong>63.6%</strong></td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (at prediction)</th><td>53.0%</td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (live)</th><td><span class="pythia-live-price" data-token-id="108449563841374789148335242997204829649495869612807512502906785811002219858426">—</span></td></tr>
</table>

## Analysis

The structural math (P(R advances) × P(Hilton is that R) + P(two Rs)) supports ~58-60%, but the IVP poll showing Hilton 3rd is a serious counterpoint.

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