# Will the Democratic Party win the UT-02 House seat?

<table class="pythia-summary">
<tr><th>Predicted at</th><td>2026-02-24 12:39 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><th>Prediction</th><td><strong>0.4%</strong></td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (at prediction)</th><td>10.5%</td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (live)</th><td><span class="pythia-live-price" data-token-id="42200861349127624830531769887465625664332564761208067308674538299681162633408">—</span></td></tr>
</table>

## Analysis

The current congressional map in Utah, upheld by federal courts in February 2026, establishes a specific partisan distribution across the state's districts. Analysis of this map confirms that the single district designed with a Democratic-leaning baseline is the newly configured UT-01, which encompasses Salt Lake County. Conversely, the UT-02 district remains structurally Republican according to major political handicappers. Because the Democratic opportunity is geographically and legally confined to the UT-01 district, the structural composition of UT-02 does not support a Democratic victory under the current electoral boundaries.

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