Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
| Predicted at | 2026-02-24 01:04 UTC |
|---|---|
| Prediction | 3.1% |
| Market (at prediction) | 11.0% |
| Market (live) | — |
Analysis
All 8 agents converge tightly on 11-13% (σ=0.008), matching the market price of 11%. The evidence is well-researched and consistent: Republicans hold ~218-220 seats, the 200-204 range requires a 14-18 seat loss, which is plausible but represents just one 5-seat bin in a wide distribution. The Cook floor of 202 seats supports this range as plausible, but Trump's low approval and generic ballot leads suggest the distribution mode may be below 200 (consistent with 58% sibling market weight below 200). Agent 6 and 7 had the strongest district-level evidence via Cook ratings. No agent found evidence suggesting significant mispricing. The 1% edge is far too small to trade, especially given 9 months of uncertainty remaining. This is a well-priced market.
Timestamped via OpenTimestamps · Block 957898
SHA-256: 0f6a67801c12cfbf23b012fb51d82731426b640f020907fb0f626e65058eda28
Download content.md · Download .ots proof
Verification needs both files. Download them, confirm the text’s hash with
sha256sum content.md, then check the proof against
it — drag both into opentimestamps.org
or run ots verify content.md.ots locally. The
.ots proof anchors that SHA-256 into a Bitcoin block,
showing this analysis existed before the outcome was known.
This page is for informational and research purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial advice. Do not make investment decisions based on these predictions.