# Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?

<table class="pythia-summary">
<tr><th>Predicted at</th><td>2026-02-28 12:26 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><th>Prediction</th><td><strong>4.7%</strong></td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (at prediction)</th><td>49.0%</td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (live)</th><td><span class="pythia-live-price" data-token-id="48378393363400661470216649657095000766643444730642238841537767196651546828224">—</span></td></tr>
</table>

## Analysis

The historical base rate for the repeal of recently enacted tax provisions within a short timeframe remains low, typically ranging between 5% and 15%. Analysis of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) indicates a strong legislative inertia, as few of its provisions have been repealed despite years of ongoing debate. While there is occasional bipartisan interest in tax adjustments, significant legislative hurdles, including resistance from party leadership in both the House and Senate, continue to impede major changes to existing tax codes. Consequently, the evidence suggests that a full repeal of the current gambling loss deduction cap before the 2027 deadline faces substantial structural and political obstacles.

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