Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?
| Predicted at | 2026-02-28 12:46 UTC |
|---|---|
| Prediction | 77.3% |
| Market (at prediction) | 75.5% |
| Market (live) | — |
Analysis
Agents are fundamentally split: low-end agents (32-45%) overweight unprecedented political dynamics and DOJ backfire narrative; high-end agents (68-72%) appropriately weight the strong historical base rate but may underweight genuine uncertainty. The ensemble mean of 56% is an artifact of averaging divergent views rather than a consensus estimate. The median (61.5%) is more informative. I pull toward market price because: (1) the Dec 31 deadline is generous — even if Powell stays initially, he could leave later; (2) the historical base rate is genuinely powerful; (3) I cannot articulate a strong specific reason the market is wrong beyond 'this time is different.' However, the edge (75.5% vs 67%) is marginal given extreme uncertainty (agent confidence averaging ~0.50), and agents fundamentally disagree without resolution. SKIP is appropriate.
Timestamped via OpenTimestamps · Block 957898
SHA-256: 5f840858602f62fff92554745ff5e390bceb4e829b0cccab7b6e901a58eb333a
Download content.md · Download .ots proof
Verification needs both files. Download them, confirm the text’s hash with
sha256sum content.md, then check the proof against
it — drag both into opentimestamps.org
or run ots verify content.md.ots locally. The
.ots proof anchors that SHA-256 into a Bitcoin block,
showing this analysis existed before the outcome was known.
This page is for informational and research purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial advice. Do not make investment decisions based on these predictions.