US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?
| Predicted at | 2026-02-28 12:57 UTC |
|---|---|
| Prediction | 1.4% |
| Market (at prediction) | 27.0% |
| Market (live) | — |
Analysis
All 8 agents agree this is unlikely, ranging 4-18% with median 13.5%. The strongest agents (7 at 4%, 5 at 6%) found the most concrete evidence: Trump's own recent actions (NDAA signing, sanctions extension) directly contradict recognition. The de facto vs de jure distinction is analytically decisive — Trump's proposals don't even propose what the market requires. The market at 27% is significantly overpriced. I weight toward the stronger-evidence agents (4-10% range) because their evidence is specific, recent, and verifiable rather than speculative. At 8%, edge vs market is ~19 percentage points with strong, multi-layered evidence supporting NO. The sequence required for YES (deal framework → agreement → formal proclamation) cannot plausibly complete in 10 months given current trajectory.
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