# Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? 

<table class="pythia-summary">
<tr><th>Predicted at</th><td>2026-02-28 13:03 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><th>Prediction</th><td><strong>3.1%</strong></td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (at prediction)</th><td>38.0%</td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (live)</th><td><span class="pythia-live-price" data-token-id="87726306233867174895916877369821121775472954680372928690435002065237468144594">—</span></td></tr>
</table>

## Analysis

The UK has proscribed approximately 80 organizations under the Terrorism Act 2000, but has never designated an entire branch of a foreign state's military apparatus as a terrorist organization. Current government policy maintains that the IRGC does not meet the legal criteria for proscription because it functions as a state military organ rather than a non-state actor. While there is significant domestic and international pressure for such a designation, the government has not introduced the necessary legislative changes to overcome this structural barrier. Consequently, the absence of a clear legal pathway or active legislative movement makes a formal designation within the specified timeframe historically unprecedented and procedurally unlikely.

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