# Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?

<table class="pythia-summary">
<tr><th>Predicted at</th><td>2026-03-08 15:50 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><th>Prediction</th><td><strong>77.3%</strong></td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (at prediction)</th><td>75.5%</td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (live)</th><td><span class="pythia-live-price" data-token-id="22801850234146882171623964647122386741389461559306988855789494206399090605744">—</span></td></tr>
</table>

## Analysis

Jerome Powell's term as Chair of the Federal Reserve is scheduled to conclude on May 15, 2026, while his appointment as a member of the Board of Governors extends until January 31, 2028. The primary analytical consideration for this outcome is the historical precedent established since 1948, during which every individual who has served as Fed Chair has resigned from the Board of Governors upon the expiration of their term as Chair. While the legal appointment allows for continued service as a governor, the consistent pattern of departure following the conclusion of the leadership role serves as the central factor in assessing the likelihood of his exit before the end of 2026. This forecast balances the formal duration of his governor term against the strong institutional norm of departing the Board alongside the Chair position.

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