Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?
| Predicted at | 2026-02-16 06:13 UTC |
|---|---|
| Prediction | 15.2% |
| Market (at prediction) | 38.0% |
| Market (live) | — |
Analysis
7 of 8 agents cluster between 18-35% (mean ~28.6%), with only Agent 6 at 55% as a clear outlier whose reasoning doesn't justify the deviation. The core evidence is strong and specific: Kazakhstan announced Nov 6, 2025 but hasn't formally signed despite 3+ months and a high-level visit. The Polymarket clarification requires formal signing. The market dropped 11 points in 2 days (Feb 13-14) as this became clear. Somaliland faces opposition from virtually every regional power and has disputed sovereignty. Saudi Arabia is in 'deep freeze.' The historical base rate of zero new signatories in 4+ years reinforces the difficulty. With only ~6 weeks remaining and no scheduled ceremony, the probability is below the current 38% market price. I estimate 27%, giving approximately 11% edge on NO.
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