Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?
| Predicted at | 2026-03-08 15:50 UTC |
|---|---|
| Prediction | 77.3% |
| Market (at prediction) | 75.5% |
| Market (live) | — |
Analysis
Agents are fundamentally split: low-end agents (32-45%) overweight unprecedented political dynamics and DOJ backfire narrative; high-end agents (68-72%) appropriately weight the strong historical base rate but may underweight genuine uncertainty. The ensemble mean of 56% is an artifact of averaging divergent views rather than a consensus estimate. The median (61.5%) is more informative. I pull toward market price because: (1) the Dec 31 deadline is generous — even if Powell stays initially, he could leave later; (2) the historical base rate is genuinely powerful; (3) I cannot articulate a strong specific reason the market is wrong beyond 'this time is different.' However, the edge (75.5% vs 67%) is marginal given extreme uncertainty (agent confidence averaging ~0.50), and agents fundamentally disagree without resolution. SKIP is appropriate.
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